Sensitivity Analysis for the Inverted Siphon in a Long Distance Water Transfer Project: An Integrated System Modeling Perspective.

Long distance water diversion projects are developed to alleviate the conflicts between supply and demand of water resources across different watersheds. However, the significant scale water diversion projects bring new challenges for the water supply security. This paper presents the flood risk of inverted siphon structure which is used for crossing transversally in the water diversion project through sensitivity analysis. Sobol and regionalized sensitivity analysis are used to investigate the sensitive parameters of the integrated model and the sensitive range of the parameters, respectively. The integrated system model consists of the hydrologic model, the sediment transport model and the siphon hydraulic model to determine the flood overtopping duration and volume, which are used to quantify flood risk in this study. The flood overtopping duration and volume indicators are used to quantify flood risk in the sensitivity analysis. The South to North Water Diversion Project in China is used as a case study. The results show the mean rainfall and roughness coefficient of the pipe are the most sensitive parameters in the integrated models, while the sensitive range of these two parameters are distinct. The sensitivity analysis of the inverted siphon provides an insight into the significant contributions to the flood risk. The analysis can provide the guidance for the system operation security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]