On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points.

Presents a paper that attempts to provide a fairly complete analysis of the performance of the existing composite index of leading indicators as a predictor of the major swings in economic activity in the period since the Second World War. Identification of the twelve variables that form the composite index of leading indicators (CLI) and presents a view of the rationale for constructing the CLI; Indication of how spectral analysis might be used to form a new leading indicator that overcomes some of the difficulties revealed in the current CLI, and the evaluation of two variants of such an indicator; Conclusions and suggestions for further work.