Sensitivities of modelled water vapour in the lower stratosphere: temperature uncertainty, effects of horizontal transport and small-scale mixing.

Water vapour (H₂O) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) has a significant role for global radiation. A realistic representation of H₂O is therefore critical for accurate climate model predictions of future climate change. In this paper we investigate the effects of current uncertainties in tropopause temperature, horizontal transport and small-scale mixing on simulated H₂O in the lower stratosphere (LS). To assess the sensitivities of simulated H₂O, we use the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). First, we examine CLaMS, which is driven by two reanalyses, from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), to investigate the robustness with respect to the meteorological dataset. Second, we carry out CLaMS simulations with transport barriers along latitude circles (at the Equator, 15 and 35° N/S) to assess the effects of horizontal transport. Third, we vary the strength of parametrized small-scale mixing in CLaMS. Our results show significant differences (about 0.5 ppmv) in simulated stratospheric H₂O due to uncertainties in the tropical tropopause temperatures between the two reanalysis datasets, JRA-55 and ERA-Interim. The JRA-55 based simulation is significantly moister when compared to ERA-Interim, due to a warmer tropical tropopause (approximately 2 K). The transport barrier experiments demonstrate that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) subtropics have a strong moistening effect on global stratospheric H₂O. The comparison of tropical entry H₂O from the sensitivity 15° N/S barrier simulation and the reference case shows differences of up to around 1 ppmv. Interhemispheric exchange shows only a very weak effect on stratospheric H₂O. Small-scale mixing mainly increases troposphere--stratosphere exchange, causing an enhancement of stratospheric H₂O, particularly along the subtropical jets in the summer hemisphere and in the NH monsoon regions. In particular, the Asian and American monsoon systems during a boreal summer appear to be regions especially sensitive to changes in small-scale mixing, which appears crucial for controlling the moisture anomalies in the monsoon UTLS. For the sensitivity simulation with varied mixing strength, differences in tropical entry H₂O between the weak and strong mixing cases amount to about 1 ppmv, with small-scale mixing enhancing H₂O in the LS. The sensitivity studies presented here provide new insights into the leading processes that control stratospheric H₂O, which are important for assessing and improving climate model projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]