Japan's R&D Project of Ramp Forecasting Technology: Meteorological Pattern Analysis Method.

This study introduces a system for forecasting wind power ramps developed via a national R&D project funded by the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization. The developed forecast system focused on meteorological pattern analysis. First, the system evaluated the analogy between sea level pressure (SLP) patterns in the latest global-scale model and past SLP patterns associated with abrupt wind speed changes. The latest SLP pattern determined the selection of the optimal Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model setup. Wind forecast data from the WRF model were corrected and converted to wind power output through the analog ensemble method and an empirical power curve. The forecast system also produced ramp probabilities and ramp alerts, which were calculated from the means and standard deviations of the wind power output on and around two transit locations (e.g., the starting time and after six hours) in the principal component space about the SLP forecast and power output observation data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]