Intermodel Differences in Upwelling in the Tropical Tropopause Layer Among CMIP5 Models.

The climatology of upwelling in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) in current climate simulations and in future climate projections is examined using models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Large intermodel differences in upwelling in the TTL appear in the current climate simulations. Model composite analysis and upwelling diagnosis based on the zonal momentum budget indicate that the intermodel differences in upwelling are controlled by meridional eddy momentum fluxes associated with tropical planetary waves and midlatitude synoptic waves. Future climate simulations indicate that upwelling changes in the TTL are significantly correlated with the upwelling in current climate simulations. Models with strong (weak) TTL upwelling in the current climate simulations tend to project strong (weak) upwelling enhancement in the future climate. The intermodel differences in the upwelling change arise from the same dynamical factors as the current climate cases. The contribution of sea surface temperature (SST) to the intermodel upwelling differences is examined by SST‐prescribed simulations in CMIP5. The contribution of intermodel SST differences to the upwelling is smaller than that of intrinsic atmospheric intermodel differences. The significant correlation of the tropical upwelling between the current climate simulations and the future changes appears to be independent of the target latitude range. Key Points: Upwelling in the tropical tropopause layer in current climate and in future climate is examined using CMIP5 modelsModels with strong upwelling in the current climate tend to project strong upwelling enhancement in the future climateIntermodel differences in upwelling are controlled mainly by atmospheric model uncertainty rather than sea surface temperature uncertainty [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]