Clustered ANFIS network using fuzzy c-means, subtractive clustering, and grid partitioning for hourly solar radiation forecasting.

In this paper, an improved clustered adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast an hour-ahead solar radiation data for 915 h is introduced. First, we have classified the history data of solar radiation time series to decrease the input sample size using clustering methods. Three methods are used, namely, fuzzy c-means (FCM), subtractive clustering, and grid partitioning. These methods allow classifying the input data into groups; each group has similar properties that help to understand the correlation between the data and by consequence simplify the forecasting process. Second, we designed an ANFIS structure that takes both advantages of fuzzy theory to describe the uncertain phenomena of the data and artificial neural network algorithm, which has a self-learning ability. Finally, by combining clustered data and ANFIS model, an hour-ahead forecasting is achieved, and it was validated using measured data. The advantage of the proposed method is that provides the ability to use implicitly the information associated with the forecasting problem, without a priori knowledge of the relationships between the different variables solar radiation. The comparison results show that the ANFIS with FCM clustering model gives the best results with RMSE equals to 112 W/m² and high values of FS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]