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Projection of Temperature-Related Myocardial Infarction in Augsburg, Germany.
- Source :
- Deutsches Ärzteblatt International; 8/5/2019, Vol. 116 Issue 31/32, p521-528, 11p, 1 Chart
- Publication Year :
- 2019
-
Abstract
- Background: Substantial efforts are required to limit global warming to under 2 °C, with 1.5 °C as the target (Paris Agreement goal). We set out to project future temperature-related myocardial infarction (MI) events in Augsburg, Germany, at increases in warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C. Methods: Using daily time series of MI cases and temperature projections under two climate scenarios, we projected changes in temperature-related MIs at different increases in warming, assuming no changes in population structure or level of adaptation. Results: In a low-emission scenario that limits warming to below 2 °C throughout the 21st century, temperature-related MI cases will decrease slightly by -6 (confidence interval -60; 50) per decade at 1.5 °C of warming. In a high-emission scenario going beyond the Paris Agreement goals, temperature-related MI cases will increase by 18 (-64; 117) and 63 (-83; 257) per decade with warming of 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively. Conclusion: The future burden of temperature-related MI events in Augsburg at 2 °C and 3 °C of warming will be greater than at 1.5 °C. Fulfilling the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 °C is therefore essential to avoid additional MI events due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 18660452
- Volume :
- 116
- Issue :
- 31/32
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Deutsches Ă„rzteblatt International
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 138756090
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.3238/arztebl.2019.0521