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Role of land cover changes for atmospheric CO2 increase and climate change during the last 150 years.
- Source :
- Global Change Biology; Aug2004, Vol. 10 Issue 8, p1253-1266, 14p, 1 Diagram, 3 Charts, 8 Graphs
- Publication Year :
- 2004
-
Abstract
- We assess the role of changing natural (volcanic, aerosol, insolation) and anthropogenic (CO<subscript>2</subscript> emissions, land cover) forcings on the global climate system over the last 150 years using an earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2. We apply several datasets of historical land-use reconstructions: the cropland dataset by (R&F), the HYDE land cover dataset of , and the land-use emissions data from . Comparison between the simulated and observed temporal evolution of atmospheric CO<subscript>2</subscript> and δ<superscript>13</superscript>CO<subscript>2</subscript> are used to evaluate these datasets. To check model uncertainty, CLIMBER-2 was coupled to the more complex Lund–Potsdam–Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model. In simulation with R&F dataset, biogeophysical mechanisms due to land cover changes tend to decrease global air temperature by 0.26°C, while biogeochemical mechanisms act to warm the climate by 0.18°C. The net effect on climate is negligible on a global scale, but pronounced over the land in the temperate and high northern latitudes where a cooling due to an increase in land surface albedo offsets the warming due to land-use CO<subscript>2</subscript> emissions. Land cover changes led to estimated increases in atmospheric CO<subscript>2</subscript> of between 22 and 43 ppmv. Over the entire period 1800–2000, simulated δ<superscript>13</superscript>CO<subscript>2</subscript> with HYDE compares most favourably with ice core during 1850–1950 and Cape Grim data, indicating preference of earlier land clearance in HYDE over R&F. In relative terms, land cover forcing corresponds to 25–49% of the observed growth in atmospheric CO<subscript>2</subscript>. This contribution declined from 36–60% during 1850–1960 to 4–35% during 1960–2000. CLIMBER-2-LPJ simulates the land cover contribution to atmospheric CO<subscript>2</subscript> growth to decrease from 68% during 1900–1960 to 12% in the 1980s. Overall, our simulations show a decline in the relative role of land cover changes for atmospheric CO<subscript>2</subscript> increase during the last 150 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- CLIMATE change
CLIMATOLOGY
GLOBAL temperature changes
LAND use
CARBON dioxide
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 13541013
- Volume :
- 10
- Issue :
- 8
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Global Change Biology
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 13880115
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00812.x