Contribution of Global warming and Urbanization to Changes in Temperature Extremes in Eastern China.

The anthropogenic‐induced global warming and local urbanization exert important influences on temperature extremes in Eastern China. Here we use China station observations and climate models to investigate their effects on the warm and cold days and nights simultaneously. We quantified the contribution from these two factors based on an optimal fingerprinting method. We find that both anthropogenic and urbanization signals can be clearly detected and separated from each other in the nighttime temperature extremes. The effect of urbanization may explain as much as one third of the observed changes in cold and warm nights while the urbanization signal is weak in the daytime extremes. The results are robust against sampling uncertainty in the estimate of urbanization signal, but uncertainty due to collinearity between the urbanization signal and global warming is difficult to assess. Plain Language Summary: Understanding the causes behind changes in temperature extremes is of significance for reliably projecting future climate change. Previous studies have separately shown that global warming and the urbanization effects are the two important drivers for the increase of warm extremes and decrease of cold extremes in Eastern China. In this study, we consider these two factors simultaneously using an optimal fingerprinting method. We find that climate models can well reproduce the observed changes in extreme temperature when the urbanization effects are included. Both global warming and urbanization have contributed to changes in nighttime temperature extremes, with global warming contributing slightly more. On the other hand, changes in daytime temperature extremes seem to be predominantly due to global warming. Key Points: Global warming and urbanization exert important influences on both warm and cold days and nights in Eastern ChinaBoth anthropogenic and urban signals are detected in nighttime extreme temperatures while only the former is detected in daytime extremesThe effect of urbanization is estimated to have contributed as much as one third of the observed warming in nighttime temperature extremes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]