What Will the Weather Do? Forecasting Flood Losses Based on Oscillation Indices.

Atmospheric oscillations are known to drive the large‐scale variability of hydrometeorological extremes in Europe, which can trigger flood events and losses. However, to date there are no studies that have assessed the combined influence of different large‐scale atmospheric oscillations on the probabilities of flood losses occurring. Therefore, in this study we examine the relationship between five indices of atmospheric oscillation and four classes of flood losses probabilities at subregional European scales. In doing so, we examine different combinations of atmospheric oscillations, both synchronous and seasonally lagged. By applying logistic regressions, we aim to identify regions and seasons where probabilities of flood losses occurring can be estimated by indices of atmospheric oscillation with higher skill than historical probabilities. We show that classes of flood losses can be predicted by synchronous indices of atmospheric oscillation and that in some seasons and regions lagged relationships may exist between the indices of atmospheric oscillation and the probability of flood losses. Furthermore, we find that some models generate increased (or decreased) probability of flood losses occurring when the indices are at their extreme positive or negative phases. A better understanding of the effects of atmospheric oscillations on the likelihood of flood losses occurring represents a step forward in achieving flood resilience in Europe. For instance, improved early predictions of the indices that represent such atmospheric oscillations, or the evidence of a lagged relationship between their teleconnections and floods, can significantly contribute to mitigating the socioeconomic burden of floods. Plain Language Summary: From season to season or year to year, the climate in Europe varies. Some years we see above (or below) average rainfall and river flows in different locations, resulting from atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Every year, such variability in the climate can cause extreme events such as flooding, which accounts for high economic losses in Europe. The impact of flooding can be reduced when reliable risk information is available to steer preventative risk reduction measures. However, to date, we have a limited understanding of the links between atmospheric oscillations and the impacts of floods. Therefore, we examine the relationship between multiple indices of atmospheric oscillations and flood losses. We show that the indices of atmospheric oscillations have links with flood losses in several seasons and that some of the flood losses can be predicted one season ahead. The results provide a better understanding of the combined effect of atmospheric oscillation on flood losses and show how impact‐based information can be used to improve flood risk management practices. Key Points: We aim to assess whether the probability of flood losses occurring can be estimated by indices of atmospheric oscillations in EuropeWe show that the probability of flood losses occurring can change by 100% depending on the phase of the index of the atmospheric oscillationSome of the flood losses can be predicted one season ahead because a lagged relationship may exist between the variables investigated [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]