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Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions: The Road to "Hothouse Earth" is Paved with Good Intentions.
- Source :
- International Journal of Political Economy; Jun2020, Vol. 49 Issue 2, p153-173, 21p, 8 Charts, 1 Graph
- Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- De-carbonization to restrict future global warming to 1.5 °C is technically feasible but may impose a "limit" or "planetary boundary" to economic growth, depending on whether or not human society can decouple growth from emissions. In this paper, we assess the viability of decoupling. First, we develop a prognosis of climate-constrained global growth for 2014–2050 using the transparent Kaya identity. Second, we use the Carbon-Kuznets-Curve framework to assess the effect of economic growth on emissions using measures of territorial and consumption-based emissions. We run fixed-effects regressions using OECD data for 58 countries during 2007–2015 and source alternative emissions data starting in 1992 from two other databases. While there is weak evidence suggesting a decoupling of emissions and growth at high-income levels, the main estimation sample indicates that emissions are monotonically increasing with per-capita GDP. We draw out the implications for climate policy and binding emission reduction obligations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 08911916
- Volume :
- 49
- Issue :
- 2
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- International Journal of Political Economy
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 144871474
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1080/08911916.2020.1778866