Exposure to air pollution and scarlet fever resurgence in China: a six-year surveillance study.

Scarlet fever has resurged in China starting in 2011, and the environment is one of the potential reasons. Nationwide data on 655,039 scarlet fever cases and six air pollutants were retrieved. Exposure risks were evaluated by multivariate distributed lag nonlinear models and a meta-regression model. We show that the average incidence in 2011–2018 was twice that in 2004–2010 [RR = 2.30 (4.40 vs. 1.91), 95% CI: 2.29–2.31; p < 0.001] and generally lower in the summer and winter holiday (p = 0.005). A low to moderate correlation was seen between scarlet fever and monthly NO₂ (r = 0.21) and O₃ (r = 0.11). A 10 μg/m³ increase of NO₂ and O₃ was significantly associated with scarlet fever, with a cumulative RR of 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02–1.10) and 1.04 (95% CI: 1.01–1.07), respectively, at a lag of 0 to 15 months. In conclusion, long-term exposure to ambient NO₂ and O₃ may be associated with an increased risk of scarlet fever incidence, but direct causality is not established. The reason for a re-emergence of scarlet fever in China remains unclear. Here the authors show that the number of scarlet fever cases surged in 2011 peaking in 2018, this correlates with an increase in NO₂ and O₃ but does not necessarily imply causation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]