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A multi-region discrete time mathematical modeling of the dynamics of Covid-19 virus propagation using optimal control.

Authors :
Khajji, Bouchaib
Kada, Driss
Balatif, Omar
Rachik, Mostafa
Source :
Journal of Applied Mathematics & Computing; Oct2020, Vol. 64 Issue 1/2, p255-281, 27p
Publication Year :
2020

Abstract

We study in this work a discrete mathematical model that describes the dynamics of transmission of the Corona virus between humans on the one hand and animals on the other hand in a region or in different regions. Also, we propose an optimal strategy to implement the optimal campaigns through the use of awareness campaigns in region j that aims at protecting individuals from being infected by the virus, security campaigns and health measures to prevent the movement of individuals from one region to another, encouraging the individuals to join quarantine centers and the disposal of infected animals. The aim is to maximize the number of individuals subjected to quarantine and trying to reduce the number of the infected individuals and the infected animals. Pontryagin's maximum principle in discrete time is used to characterize the optimal controls and the optimality system is solved by an iterative method. The numerical simulation is carried out using Matlab. The Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio was calculated to investigate the cost-effectiveness of all possible combinations of the four control measures. Using cost-effectiveness analysis, we show that control of protecting susceptible individuals, preventing their contact with the infected individuals and encouraging the exposed individuals to join quarantine centers provides the most cost-effective strategy to control the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
15985865
Volume :
64
Issue :
1/2
Database :
Complementary Index
Journal :
Journal of Applied Mathematics & Computing
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
145715867
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12190-020-01354-3