Variational Bayesian identification for bilinear state space models with Markov‐switching time delays.

Summary: This article studies the parameter identification problem for bilinear state space models with time‐varying time delays. Considering the correlation of time delays, the Markov chain switching mechanism is adopted to model the delay sequence. Based on the observer canonical form, the bilinear state space model is transformed into a regressive form. A bilinear state observer is designed to estimate the state variables. Under the variational Bayesian scheme, the system parameters, discrete delays, and the Markov transition probabilities are identified by using the measurement data. A numerical example and a continuous stirred tank reactor simulation are employed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]