Modeling pre-spawning fitness and optimal climate of spotted snakehead Channa punctata (Bloch, 1793) from a Gangetic floodplain wetland of West Bengal, India.

The spawning and well-being of fish in an ecosystem are closely linked to climatic cues, viz., temperature and rainfall. Reduced fitness can affect the reproductive performance and lead to skipped spawning. Benchmarking the threshold fitness required for a fish population to achieve readiness for spawning, and understanding how climatic parameters influence the fitness will aid in predicting the fate of its reproductive success in future climatic conditions. This study determined the threshold condition factor pre-spawning fitness (K_spawn50) at which 50% of the female Channa punctata population can be deemed fit for spawning. The optimal climate within which pre-spawning fitness is attained by this species under Indian climatic conditions was also identified. The study was conducted from June 2015 to September 2016, covering two spawning seasons (June–August) in a Gangetic floodplain wetland of West Bengal, India. The non-parametric Kaplan–Meier method (survival fit) was used for estimation of pre-spawning fitness. "Ready to spawn" females were classified based on binary coding of the gonadal maturity stages. The thermal and precipitation range within which spawning fitness is achieved was identified by using the locally weighted smoothing technique. Female C. punctata pre-spawning fitness (K_spawn50) ranged from 1.26 to 1.39 with an estimated median of 1.29 units. Temperatures between 29 and 32 °C and rainfall above 100 mm were conducive to attaining the requisite pre-spawning fitness in C. punctata. This is the first study benchmarking the pre-spawning fitness and optimal climate for C. punctata. Understanding spawning requirements can inform the climate change–induced impacts on reproductive plasticity and evolutionary adaptations of snakeheads in the Ganga river basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]