Three-dimensional thermo-hydro-mechanical coupled modeling of thermal anomalies before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.

Pre-seismic thermal anomalies have been widely reported, however, there is still no unified understanding of their causes or physical mechanisms. To clarify whether subsurface fluid convection and rock deformation directly related to seismic fault stress release can form thermal anomalies before an earthquake, we carried out thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) coupled modeling of the Wenchuan earthquake, and considered the influence of maximum horizontal principal stress direction (MPSD) and fault dip. The results show that convective thermal flux (CT) anomalies of subsurface fluid and the deformation induced thermal flux (DT) of the rock mass caused by stress release of the seismic fault can explain the observed thermal anomalies along the fault. The calculated and observed thermal anomalies are comparable in spatial distribution, evolution, and magnitude. Specifically, for the Wenchuan earthquake, seismic fault stress release-induced CT and DT anomalies occur in the fault zone and in the adjacent hanging wall area. In the fault zone, CT and DT induced thermal anomalies were comparable, and superposition of the two was characterized by strong initial warming, followed by weaker warming and then short-term cooling. However, outside of the fault zone, CT induced thermal anomalies had much higher intensities than those induced by DT, and were characterized by band-like warming along the hanging wall of the fault. In addition, variations in the MPSD and fault dip cause the segmentation of thermal anomalies along the Wenchuan earthquake fault. From the southern to the northern segments of the fault, the intensity of thermal anomalies is significantly weakened with rotation of MPSD and an increase in fault dip. Our study provides evidence that seismic fault stress release is the cause of pre-seismic thermal anomalies; furthermore, the results indicate the CT and DT could be important physical mechanisms of pre-seismic thermal anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]