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Targeted COVID-19 Vaccination (TAV-COVID) Considering Limited Vaccination Capacities—An Agent-Based Modeling Evaluation.

Authors :
Jahn, Beate
Sroczynski, Gaby
Bicher, Martin
Rippinger, Claire
Mühlberger, Nikolai
Santamaria, Júlia
Urach, Christoph
Schomaker, Michael
Stojkov, Igor
Schmid, Daniela
Weiss, Günter
Wiedermann, Ursula
Redlberger-Fritz, Monika
Druml, Christiane
Kretzschmar, Mirjam
Paulke-Korinek, Maria
Ostermann, Herwig
Czasch, Caroline
Endel, Gottfried
Bock, Wolfgang
Source :
Vaccines; May2021, Vol. 9 Issue 5, p434, 1p
Publication Year :
2021

Abstract

(1) Background: The Austrian supply of COVID-19 vaccine is limited for now. We aim to provide evidence-based guidance to the authorities in order to minimize COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths in Austria. (2) Methods: We used a dynamic agent-based population model to compare different vaccination strategies targeted to the elderly (65 ≥ years), middle aged (45–64 years), younger (15–44 years), vulnerable (risk of severe disease due to comorbidities), and healthcare workers (HCW). First, outcomes were optimized for an initially available vaccine batch for 200,000 individuals. Second, stepwise optimization was performed deriving a prioritization sequence for 2.45 million individuals, maximizing the reduction in total hospitalizations and deaths compared to no vaccination. We considered sterilizing and non-sterilizing immunity, assuming a 70% effectiveness. (3) Results: Maximum reduction of hospitalizations and deaths was achieved by starting vaccination with the elderly and vulnerable followed by middle-aged, HCW, and younger individuals. Optimizations for vaccinating 2.45 million individuals yielded the same prioritization and avoided approximately one third of deaths and hospitalizations. Starting vaccination with HCW leads to slightly smaller reductions but maximizes occupational safety. (4) Conclusion: To minimize COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths, our study shows that elderly and vulnerable persons should be prioritized for vaccination until further vaccines are available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
2076393X
Volume :
9
Issue :
5
Database :
Complementary Index
Journal :
Vaccines
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
150502894
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9050434