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Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in England: the first wave.
- Source :
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences; 7/19/2021, Vol. 376 Issue 1829, p1-9, 9p
- Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- England has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with severe 'lockdown' mitigation measures now gradually being lifted. The real-time pandemic monitoring presented here has contributed to the evidence informing this pandemic management throughout the first wave. Estimates on the 10 May showed lockdown had reduced transmission by 75%, the reproduction number falling from 2.6 to 0.61. This regionally varying impact was largest in London with a reduction of 81% (95% credible interval: 77-84%). Reproduction numbers have since then slowly increased, and on 19 June the probability of the epidemic growing was greater than 5% in two regions, South West and London. By this date, an estimated 8% of the population had been infected, with a higher proportion in London (17%). The infection-to-fatality ratio is 1.1% (0.9-1.4%) overall but 17% (14-22%) among the over-75s. This ongoing work continues to be key to quantifying any widespread resurgence, should accrued immunity and effective contact tracing be insufficient to preclude a second wave. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- COVID-19
COVID-19 pandemic
CONTACT tracing
PANDEMICS
FORECASTING
OCEAN waves
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 09628436
- Volume :
- 376
- Issue :
- 1829
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 150687997
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0279