Using system dynamics approach to build policy scenario for reducing CO2 emission resulted from tourism travel to Karimunjawa.

Purpose: This study aims to create the causal relationship between transportation behavior to Karimunjawa, the number of tourists and the amount of CO2 produced; calculate the reduction of CO2 emissions from the transportation to Karimunjawa based on several proposed policy scenarios; and formulate the managerial implication and recommendation to support the implementation of several proposed policy scenarios. Design/methodology/approach: This study develops a system dynamics‐based model by using three sub-systems, i.e. "the number of tourist sub-system," "the switching behavior of tourist travel sub-system" and "the CO2 emission sub-system." Findings: The simulation results have shown that, under the current situation, tourist travel behavior should be changed to maximum condition to get the minimum CO2 emission. Improvement of the behavior of tourist in selecting the mode of transportation and the departure point of mini-tour bus and ferry are an effective way to reduce the CO2 emission. Research limitations/implications: This study only considers limited variables as the driver of the level of change of the capacity of Karimunjawa and the road as well as the variables as the driver of tourism growth. This study only focuses on CO2 emission from the direct impacts of tourist travel; this study does not consider the indirect impact of tourism activity on CO2 emissions. International air travel is not included in the present study. Practical implications: From a managerial perspective, this study demonstrates that change in the tourist travel behavior is generally not effective in triggering CO2 emission reduction, unless it is accompanied by the strict restriction policy related to the tourist route. Social implications: This study has the potential to raise societal awareness that the causality of tourist growth and CO2 emissions should be seen as the impact of tourist travel behavior. In this case, to modify the travel behavior, tourist needs to change their mode of transportation to more sustainable transportation. Originality/value: This paper intends to fill the literature gap of the effect of tourism growth from two perspectives, namely, tourist travel behavior and environmental. The modeling of tourist transport and CO2 emission will provide an overview of the selection of the problem-solving mode for tourist transport that can give a significant contribution to the greenhouse gas emissions reduction to the environmental. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]