The environmental consequences of a change in Australian cotton lint production.

Purpose: Changes in the production of Australian cotton lint are expected to have a direct environmental impact, as well as indirect impacts related to co-product substitution and induced changes in crop production. The environmental consequences of a 50% expansion or contraction in production were compared to Australian cotton production's current environmental footprint. Both were then assessed to investigate whether current impacts are suitable for predicting the environmental impact of a change in demand for cotton lint. Methods: A consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) model of Australian cotton lint production (cradle-to-gin gate) was developed using plausible scenarios regarding domestic regions and technologies affected by changes in supply, with both expansion (additional cotton) and contraction (less cotton) being modelled. Modelling accounted for direct impacts from cotton production and indirect impacts associated with changes to cotton production, including co-product substitution and changes to related crops at regional and global scales. Impact categories assessed included climate change, fossil energy demand, freshwater consumption, water stress, marine and freshwater eutrophication, land occupation and land-use change. Results and discussion: For both the expansion and contraction scenarios, the changes to climate change impacts (including iLUC) and water impacts were less than would be assumed from current production as determined using attributional LCA. However, the opposite was true for all other impact categories, indicating trade-offs across the impact categories. Climate change impacts under both scenarios were relatively minor because these were largely offset by iLUC. Similarly, under the contraction scenario, water impacts were dominated by indirect impacts associated with regional crops. A sensitivity analysis showed that the results were sufficiently robust to indicate the quantum of changes that could be expected. Conclusions: A complex array of changes in technologies, production regions and related crops were required to model the environmental impacts of a gross change in cotton production. Australian cotton lint production provides an example of legislation constraining the direct water impacts of production, leading to a contrast between impacts estimated by attributional and consequential LCA. This model demonstrated that indirect products and processes are important contributors to the environmental impacts of Australian cotton lint. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]