What drives landslide risk: Disaggregating risk analyses, an example from the Franz Josef and Fox Glacier Valleys, New Zealand.

We present a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) case-study from the Franz Josef and Fox Glacier Valleys, on the West Coast of the South Island, New Zealand. The Glacier Valleys are important tourist destinations that are subject to landslide hazards. Both valleys contain actively retreating glaciers, experience high rainfall, and are proximal to the Alpine Fault, which is a major source of seismic hazard on the West Coast. We considered the life safety risk from rockfalls, soil/rock avalanches and flows that are either seismically triggered or occur aseismically. To determine the range in risk values, and dominant contributing variables on the risk, we modelled nine different risk scenarios where we incrementally changed the variables used in the risk model to account for the underlying uncertainty. The scenarios represent our central estimate of the risk, e.g. neither optimistic nor conservative, through to our upper estimate of the risk. We include in these estimates the impact of time-variable factors, such as a recently reactivated landslide has had on locally increasing risk and the time-elapsed since the last major earthquake on the nearby Alpine Fault. We disaggregated our risk results to determine the dominant drivers in landslide risk, which highlighted importance of considering dynamic time variable risk scenarios and the changing contributions to risk from aseismic versus seismic landslides. A detailed understanding of the drivers of landslide risk in each valley is important to determine the most efficient and appropriate risk management decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]