Increasing Concurrent Drought Probability in Global Main Crop Production Countries.

Understanding concurrent drought events in global main croplands is crucially important for food security, effective adaptation to climate change and human well‐being. Yet, there is a lack of comprehensive studies on concurrent drought probability changes among main crop production countries on a global scale, especially for the future. Here, we studied concurrent drought among 26 main crop production countries for the time period 1861–2099. During the historical period, probability of concurrent moderate and severe drought among the countries was relatively low, and the maximum concurrent moderate and severe drought probability will double and triple under RCP8.5 extreme climate, respectively. Concurrent probability of moderate and severe drought between China and United States of America, Brazil and Russia will be at least 6% and 5% under RCP8.5, respectively, compared with zero in the historical period. Limiting RCPs to RCP2.6 can decrease the concurrent probability of severe drought at least 2% (at least 3% for RCP8.5). Plain Language Summary: In the past over 100 years, the world had rarely experienced extreme drought events that occurred at the same time among major food producing countries. Yet, there is a lack of comprehensive studies on the changes of the concurrent drought probability among global main crop production countries, especially for the future. We studied the concurrent drought among 26 global main crop production countries for the time period 1861–2099. We find that the maximum concurrent probability of moderate and severe drought will double and triple, respectively, under the business as usual climate scenario. Concurrent probability of moderate and severe drought between China and United States of America, Brazil and Russia will be at least 6% and 5% under future business as usual climate, compared with zero in the historical period. Key Points: Maximum concurrent probability of moderate and severe drought will double and triple under RCP8.5, respectivelyConcurrent probability of moderate and severe drought between China and United States of America, Brazil and Russia will be at least 6% and 5% under RCP8.5Limiting RCPs to RCP2.6 can decrease the concurrent probability of severe drought at least 2% (at least 3% for RCP8.5) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]