The Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Processes in Yuanjiang River Basin.

To explore the possible impact of climate change on the hydrometeorologicalprocesses and provide the reference for flood prevention and disaster reduction in Yuanjiang River Basin, this paper obtains the outputs of five GCMs announced by CMIP6 from 2041 to 2100. Then, monthly precipitation and temperature under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 paths are generated through the M-BCSD down- scaling method. Moreover, the impact of climate change on the runoff at the basin outlet is forecasted by back-propagation neural network (BPNN) with cross validation skill. The results indicate that the M-BCSD method has better applicability in Yuanjiang River Basin and the BPNN is able to predict the monthly runoff effectively. In general, the mean annual rainfall, temperature and runoff have an increasing trend within the periods of 2041-2100 with the maximum increase of 24.6%, 20.4% and 10.2% respectively. As for the seasonal scale, the runoff decreases in spring and increases in fall. As for the monthly scale, the runoff decreases in April and increases in November. Under different path scenarios, the changes of the hydrometeorological elements are basically consistent but their amplitudes are different. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]