Constrained Emergence of Air Temperature Change Signal in Northern‐Central India From Background Variations.

The signal of temperature change has emerged from background variations in most tropical regions in boreal summer over decadal‐centennial timescales but not in northern‐central India (NCI). In this study, we investigated the reason for the limited temperature change in NCI. We found that internal variability, largely caused by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) on a ∼20‐year timescale, has the potential to mask the temperature change signal. Besides, local response to external forcing, linked to non‐greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings, strongly overrides GHG warming in NCI, which results in little trend in the temporal evolution of external variability. The internal variability related to IPO and the limited warming arising from the competition between multiple forcings result in the smallest signal‐to‐noise ratio and thus, the temperature change signal fails to emerge from the background variations. Plain Language Summary: Earth's surface has warmed considerably since 1850s, which can be largely attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. When human activities (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions) cause the local temperature change to exceed the inherent variation of the climate system, the region will face more extreme climate events. Although temperature has experienced warming almost all around the globe, here we show that surface air temperature in boreal summer in northern‐central India has not gone through significant changes. The timing of transition is important for policymakers. Thus, we analyzed the reasons for this and show that it reflects the combined effects of natural processes and local anthropogenic forcings. Key Points: The external forcing exhibits a cooling trend in northern‐central India (NCI), whereas most global regions have warmed considerablyCooling effects of non‐greenhouse gas forcings that override global warming lead to a cooling trend in NCIThe internal variability related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the limited warming cause the smallest signal‐to‐noise ratio [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]