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Projection of Extreme Temperature Events over the Mediterranean and Sahara Using Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Models.

Authors :
Babaousmail, Hassen
Ayugi, Brian
Rajasekar, Adharsh
Zhu, Huanhuan
Oduro, Collins
Mumo, Richard
Ongoma, Victor
Source :
Atmosphere; May2022, Vol. 13 Issue 5, p741, 25p
Publication Year :
2022

Abstract

Climate change continues to increase the intensity, frequency and impacts of weather and climate extremes. This work uses bias-adjusted Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) model datasets to investigate the future changes in temperature extremes over Mediterranean (MED) and Sahara (SAH) regions. The mid- (2041–2070) and far-future (2071–2100) are studied under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Quantile mapping function greatly improved the performance of CMIP6 by reducing the notable biases to match the distribution of observation data, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Results show persistent significant warming throughout the 21st century, increasing with the increase in radiative forcing. The MED will record a higher increase in temperature extremes as compared to SAH. The warming is supported by the projected reduction in cold days (TX10p) and cold nights (TN10p), with the reduction in the number of cold nights exceeding cold days. Notably, warm spell duration index (WSDI) and summer days (SU) have a positive trend in both timelines over the entire study area. There is a need to simulate how climate sensitive sectors, such as water and agriculture, are likely to be affected by projected changes under different scenarios for informed decision making in the choice and implementation of adaptation and mitigation effective measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
20734433
Volume :
13
Issue :
5
Database :
Complementary Index
Journal :
Atmosphere
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
157129135
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050741