An Investigation of Ionospheric TEC Prediction Maps Over China Using Bidirectional Long Short‐Term Memory Method.

The ionospheric total electron content (TEC) is an important ionospheric parameter, and it is widely utilized in research such as space weather prediction and precise positioning. However, it is still challenging to develop an ionospheric TEC prediction model with high accuracy. In this study, a new ionospheric TEC model over China was developed using the bidirectional long short‐term memory (bi‐LSTM) method and observations from 257 ground‐based global navigation satellite system (GNSS) stations in the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China from January 2018 to December 2021. The root mean square errors of the bi‐LSTM‐based model's 1 and 2 hr ahead predictions on the test data set (from June 2021 to December 2021) are 1.12 and 1.68 TECU, respectively, which are 75/50/32% and 72/48/22% smaller than those of the IRI‐2016, artificial neural network and LSTM‐based models, correspondingly. The bi‐LSTM‐based model shows the best performance, which is most likely due to the fact that the sequence information in both forward and backward directions is taken into consideration in the new model. In addition, the diurnal variation, seasonal variation of the ionospheric TEC, and variations under geomagnetic storm conditions are successfully captured by the bi‐LSTM‐based model. Moreover, the TEC maps resulting from the bi‐LSTM model agree well with those obtained from the final ionospheric product from the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Hence, the new model can be a good choice for the investigation of the spatiotemporal variation trend in the ionosphere and GNSS navigation. Plain Language Summary: The ionospheric total electron content (TEC) is the total number of free electrons along a signal propagation path in a cross section of one square meter, and the ionospheric delay error of the signal from the global navigation satellite system (GNSS) is proportional to the value of TEC. The variation of the ionospheric TEC can also be used to study the variations in space weather. In this study, a new ionospheric TEC model over China based on the bidirectional long short‐term memory (bi‐LSTM) method and long‐term ground‐based observations at 257 GNSS stations from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China was developed and subsequently validated. The main reason for the selection of the bi‐LSTM model is for its consideration of the sequence information in both forward and backward directions. The prediction results of the new model show that in comparison with that of three other models, including the artificial neural network, LSTM, and traditional IRI‐2016 models, the new model is the best performer. Furthermore, the bi‐LSTM model also successfully captures the diurnal and seasonal variations of the ionospheric TEC and the TEC variations under geomagnetic storm conditions. Key Points: The bidirectional long short‐term memory (bi‐LSTM) method is adopted to predict the ionospheric total electron content maps over China using long‐term ground‐based global positioning system observations from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of ChinaThe bi‐LSTM‐based model outperforms the IRI‐2016, artificial neural network and long short‐term memory‐based modelsThe bi‐LSTM‐based model can predict the ionospheric response during geomagnetic storm periods, such as the 4–7 November 2021 G3 storm period [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]