The impact of the Agulhas Current System on precipitation in southern Africa in regional climate simulations covering the recent past and future.

Southern African climate is strongly impacted by climate change. Precipitation is a key variable in this region as it is linked to agriculture and water supply. An analysis of simulations with a regional atmospheric model over the last decades and the 21st century shows that in the past precipitation has decreased in some coastal areas of South Africa and increased in the rest of southern Africa. However, it is projected to decrease over the whole southern part of the domain in the future. The Agulhas Current System, including the current and the leakage, surrounds the continent in the east and south and it is found to impact precipitation. The reduction in the strength of the Agulhas Current is linked to a reduction in precipitation along the southeast coast. The Agulhas leakage, the part of the Agulhas Current that leaves the system and flows into the South Atlantic, impacts the precipitation in the southwest of the continent, located in the winter rainfall zone. A more intense Agulhas leakage is linked to a reduction in precipitation in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]