THE CHANGING ICEBERG REGIME AND LINKS TO PAST AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE OFFSHORE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.

Recent research on iceberg subsea risk modelling has produced strong evidence for changes in the iceberg regime in the Grand Banks region that are likely to have significant implications for development activities offshore Newfoundland and Labrador. An analysis of iceberg trajectory data from 2000 onwards [C-CORE, 2020] shows a significant decrease in iceberg grounding rates on the Grand Banks when compared to an analysis of 1980s data [Banke, 1989]. Iceberg profile data collected since 2012 shows distinct changes in the length-draft relationship when compared to data collected in the 1980s [Bruce et al., 2021]. These changes, along with analysis of other relevant parameters such as iceberg frequency, geometry, and drift speed, show that the change in iceberg grounding rates is consistent with observed changes in iceberg characteristics. In this paper, the observed changes in iceberg characteristics between the 1980s and 2000-2020 are linked to changes in the air and sea surface temperature, significant wave height, and sea ice climate regime offshore Newfoundland and Labrador over this period. Projected further changes in these variables to 2050 are explored using output from a climate model. These changes will have significant implications for iceberg risk to both subsea and surface facilities, and are likely part of an ongoing trend that will continue to decrease iceberg presence and risk in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]