Bartosz Maćkowiak discussion of: Startups and employment.

The conditional projection can be adjusted for a labour market equilibrium effect - wages will respond to some extent to a change in startup activity, which will dampen the effect of a given change in startup activity on aggregate employment. Given this historical worst-case scenario, the startup calculator predicts a sizable aggregate employment loss in 2020 of about 0.9% (1.2 million jobs) and the effect is persistent - a cumulative job loss of 8.5 million by 2030 (Figure 4 in the paper, with the labour market equilibrium adjustment). The authors aim to quantify the dynamic effects of the COVID-19 recession on startup activity and thereby on aggregate employment. [Extracted from the article]