Projected Changes in Increased Drought Risks Over South Asia Under a Warmer Climate.

Every year, millions of people are at risk due to droughts in South Asia (SA). The likely impacts of droughts are projected to increase with global warming. This study uses the new ensemble mean of 23 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections to quantify future changes in increasing drought risks and associated socioeconomic exposure across SA and its subregions under 1.5°C and 2°C of warming. We used two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5. The most likely realization copula functions are used to model the joint distribution of drought severity and duration. Simultaneously, changes in the bivariate return period are calculated under a warming climate. The frequency of 50‐year historical droughts (under a bivariate framework) might double across 80% of the SA land area under 1.5°C of warming. Conversely, 12% of SA landmasses may suffer extreme droughts under 2°C of warming. The severe drought episode frequency is expected to increase under 1.5°C (40%–75%) and 2°C (60%–90%) of warming relative to the recent climate. The largest exposure increase is projected in R2 and R4, then R1. Additionally, 75% (65%) of the SA population (GDP) could suffer from increased drought risks under the 1.5°C warmer climate, whereas the additional 0.5°C warming will lead to an unbearable regional situation. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared with 2°C can significantly reduce the drought risk influence in SA. These findings can help disaster‐risk managers to adopt climate‐smart management strategies. Plain Language Summary: The world has warmed rapidly since 1970, encouraging efforts to reduce climate change and to stabilize global temperatures to between 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets above preindustrial levels. With these aims, the present study explores the spatiotemporal changes in future drought events and their associated socioeconomic exposure over South Asia (SA) and its subregions under a warmer climate. We find that amplified drought risks are projected to increase over southern and southwestern SA under 1.5°C of warming for the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios. As the world continues to warm, some land locations, such as the interior of South India and Pakistan, may experience a temporary emergence of a climate change signal that weakens if the climate stabilizes and the Paris Agreement goals are met. In addition, we also found that the frequency of 50‐year historical droughts might double across 80% of the SA land area under the 1.5°C warming target. In contrast, limiting global warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C can increase the projected population exposures to increased drought risks by almost half. We believe that the study findings will help disaster‐risk managers adopt climate‐smart policies. Key Points: The frequency of 50‐year historical droughts might double across 80% of South Asia (SA) land area under 1.5°C warmingSouthwestern SA is projected to have the largest increase in exposure compared to the other regionsLimiting global warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C can increase the projected population exposures to increased drought risks by almost half [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]