Climate Change Impacts on the Seasonal Variation of Hydro-Physical Characteristics in the Persian Gulf.

Climate change affects atmospheric circulation patterns and intensifies recurrent extreme weather events across the globe. It has resulted in increasing air temperatures, rising sea levels, and alterations in precipitation patterns, which will immensely influence the hydro-environment regime in semi-enclosed water bodies (e.g., gulfs and estuaries). The Persian Gulf (PG), the world's hottest sea, is a regional hotspot for climate change. This study investigates how the interplay between climate change and the meteorological variables affects salinity, temperature, and density of water mass concerning water circulation patterns (WCPs) in PG. It contributes to representing a perspective of meteorological conditions over the region and projecting expected seasonal variations of PG hydro-physical properties at the beginning of the next decade. For these purposes, we used the downscaled data of 2030 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathway) scenarios to run the hydrodynamic model and also used a 54-year time series (1948–2002) for reference model representing the historical state (HS). The findings project distinguishable temperature rise (reaching 37 °C in summer over vast areas), salinity rise in most parts (up to +5.4 practical salinity units relative to HS at the northwestern head in spring), and an increase in vertical density gradients leading to an increase in speeds of surface currents. These alterations in physical properties significantly influence chemical and biological processes in PG, potentially resulting in aquatic degradation and ecological issues. Therefore, the findings are remarkable for policymakers to develop adaptation management plans in the PG region in line with sustainable development goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]