Thirty-Year Airfield Pavement Behavioral and Economic Simulation to Improve Budget Allocation for the US Air Force Network.

Based on internal estimates, the US Air Force (USAF) has a deferred infrastructure maintenance backlog for its real property portfolio of over $33 billion (about 10% is airfield pavements). Without an increase in funding, divestiture of excess infrastructure, or change in strategy, this backlog is estimated to climb to over $50 billion by 2030. Reversing the growing infrastructure backlog trend requires new methods and strategies to rethink how the USAF invests in its infrastructure. This paper studied three areas aimed at improving network-level budget allocation. The algorithm behavioral and economic airfield simulation tool (BEAST), developed herein, creates a simulation tool capable of modeling behaviors and decisions of 109 organizations managing a global network of airfield pavements over 30 years. The BEAST is used to forecast outcomes of USAF investment decisions utilizing its current management strategies and historical behaviors. Analysis findings are compared to outcomes using a lowest life cycle cost tool, known as rapid asset modeling of pavement sustainment strategies (RAMPSS). The USAF's current strategy is unsustainable; however, switching to recommendations from BEAST and RAMPSS provides a potentially significant course correction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]