Enhanced Linkage of Summer Drought in Southern China to the North Pacific Oscillation Since 2000.

Based on the standardized precipitation evaporation index and reanalysis data, this article reveals that the relationship between the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the drought over southern China in summer shifts from an insignificant correlation to a significant negative correlation after 2000. During the significant period (2001–2018), the positive NPO phase corresponds to an anomalous anticyclonic circulation dominating the mid‐low latitude North Pacific, which suppresses the moisture transport into southern China. Meanwhile, the easterly anomalies south of the anomalous anticyclonic circulation prevailing in the equatorial Pacific are coupled with a cooling of sea surface temperature in the central tropical Pacific, which enhances the Walker circulation and further induces an anomalous meridional circulation with the descending anomalies over southern China. Such moisture and dynamical conditions favor the occurrence of drought in southern China. During the former period (1983–2000), however, the NPO‐related atmospheric circulations over the North Pacific shift northward. In this case, the NPO shows insignificant relations with the moisture and dynamical conditions over southern China, thereby diluting the linkage of the NPO to the drought in southern China. The interdecadal strengthening in the relationship between the NPO and above atmospheric conditions is attributed to the westward (southward) extension of the NPO northern (southern) center. The larger interannual variability of spring sea ice in the Bering Sea and the southward movement of summer storm track over the North Pacific are hypothesized to account for the expansion of the NPO structure. Plain Language Summary: Southern China is an economically developed region with a large population. In recent decades, droughts frequently occurred in this region and severely affected agriculture production, forest‐fire prevention, and human lives. Therefore, it is very necessary to understand the physical mechanisms underlying the variability of droughts in southern China. In this study, we addressed the relationship of summer drought in southern China with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), which is characterized by the north–south seesaw pattern in sea level pressure over the North Pacific. We revealed that their relationship exhibits an interdecadal change around 2000, from an insignificant correlation to a significant negative correlation. Such an interdecadal strengthening is due to the expansion of the NPO structure, which may result from the changes of the spring sea ice in the Bering Sea and the summer storm track over the North Pacific. These findings are expected to deepen our understanding for the variation of drought in southern China and are also important for disaster prevention and mitigation. Key Points: Relationship between the summer drought in southern China and the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) has strengthened after 2000Such a strengthening is attributed to the westward (southward) extension of the NPO northern (southern) centerThe expansion of the NPO structure is related to changes of spring sea ice in the Bering Sea and summer storm track over the North Pacific [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]