Global desert variation under climatic impact during 1982–2020.

Deserts are important landscapes on the earth and their variations have impacts on global climate through feedback processes. However, there is a limited understanding of the climatic controls on the spatial and temporal variations of global deserts. Here, we use climate reanalysis datasets, global land use/land cover (LULC) products and the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) model outputs to calculate the changing of global deserts during 1982–2020, and estimate future spatial trends of global deserts. Our results show that mean annual global desert area over this period is 17.64×10⁶ km², accounting for 12% of the terrestrial land. Desert areas decreased rapidly from the end of the 1980s to the 1990s in North Africa and Australia, followed by a slow expansion in the early 21st century globally. Spatio-temporal variations of areas of arid climate are characterized by interdecadal fluctuations, and there are clear regional differences in dynamics of the aridity index (AI, used here as a proxy for the area of drylands) and desert areas. Statistical analyses reveal that increased vegetation cover is directly related to the reduction of desert area, while potential evaporation, surface temperature and humidity are also significantly correlated with the desert area. The relationship between wind speed and desert dynamics varies regionally. The results of the CMIP6 simulations suggest that global deserts will expand in the 21st century, albeit at different rates under the ssp245 and ssp585 scenarios. Desert expansions are modelled to be greatest in Asia, Africa and Australia, while those of southern North Africa may reduce as their southern borders migrate northwards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]