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Extreme climatic events to intensify over the Lake Victoria Basin under global warming.
- Source :
- Scientific Reports; 6/15/2023, Vol. 13 Issue 1, p1-9, 9p
- Publication Year :
- 2023
-
Abstract
- This paper presents an analysis of future precipitation patterns over the Lake Victoria Basin, East Africa, using bias-corrected CMIP6 model projections. A mean increase of about 5% in mean annual (ANN) and seasonal [March–May (MAM), June–August (JJA), and October–December (OND)] precipitation climatology is expected over the domain by mid-century (2040–2069). The changes intensify towards the end of the century (2070–2099) with an increase in mean precipitation of about 16% (ANN), 10% (MAM), and 18% (OND) expected, relative to the 1985–2014 baseline period. Additionally, the mean daily precipitation intensity (SDII), the maximum 5-day precipitation values (RX5Day), and the heavy precipitation events—represented by the width of the right tail distribution of precipitation (99p–90p)—show an increase of 16%, 29%, and 47%, respectively, by the end of the century. The projected changes have a substantial implication for the region—which is already experiencing conflicts over water and water-related resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- WATERSHEDS
GLOBAL warming
CLIMATOLOGY
WATER supply
CLIMATE extremes
SEASONS
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 20452322
- Volume :
- 13
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Scientific Reports
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 164356133
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-36756-3