Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Extreme Wind Events in Canadian Cities.

Extreme near-surface wind speeds in cities can have major societal impacts but are not well represented in climate models. Despite this, large-scale dynamics in the free troposphere, which models resolve better, could provide reliable constraints on local extreme winds. This study identifies synoptic circulations associated with midlatitude extreme wind events and assesses how resolution affects their representation in analysis products and a climate model framework. Composites of reanalysis (ERA5) sea level pressure and upper-tropospheric winds during observed extreme wind events reveal distinct circulation structures for each quadrant of the surface-wind rose. Enhanced resolution of the analysis product (ERA5 versus the higher-resolution ECMWF Operational Analysis) reduced wind speed biases but has little impact on capturing occurrences of wind extremes seen in station observations. Composite circulations for surface wind extremes in a climate model (CESM) skillfully reproduce circulations found in reanalysis. Regional refinement of CESM over a region centered on southern Ontario, Canada, using variable resolution (VR-CESM) improves representation of surface ageostrophic circulations and the strength of vertical coupling between upper-level and near-surface winds. We thus can distinguish situations for which regional refinement (dynamical downscaling) is necessary for realistic representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulations associated with extreme winds, from situations where the coarse resolution of standard GCMs is sufficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]