Integration of a Frost Mortality Scheme Into the Demographic Vegetation Model FATES.

Frost is damaging to plants when air temperature drops below their tolerance threshold. The set of mechanisms used by cold‐tolerant plants to withstand freezing is called "hardening" and typically take place in autumn to protect against winter damage. The recent incorporation of a hardening scheme in the demographic vegetation model FATES opens up the possibility to investigate frost mortality to vegetation. Previously, the hardening scheme was used to improve hydraulic processes in cold‐tolerant plants. In this study, we expand upon the existing hardening scheme by implementing hardiness‐dependent frost mortality into CLM5.0‐FATES to study the impacts of frost on vegetation in temperate and boreal sites from 1950 to 2015. Our results show that the original freezing mortality approach of FATES, where each plant type had a fixed freezing tolerance threshold—an approach common to many other dynamic vegetation models, was restricted to predicting plant type distribution. The main results emerging from the new scheme are a high autumn and spring frost mortality, especially at colder sites, and increasing mid‐winter frost mortality due to global warming, especially at warmer sites. We demonstrate that the new frost scheme is a major step forward in dynamically representing vegetation in ESMs by for the first time including a level of frost tolerance that is responding to the environment and includes some level of cost (implicitly) and benefit. By linking hardening and frost mortality in a land surface model, we open new ways to explore the impact of frost events in the context of global warming. Plain Language Summary: Frost can lead to partial or full mortality of a plant, unless it has evolved a tolerance to cold weather to avoid the formation of ice crystals in its tissues. Frost mortality is poorly represented in most advanced dynamic vegetation models, which are our primary tools for predicting climate change and to understand its effects on the biosphere. In one of those models, the functionally assembled simulator (FATES), a minimum temperature threshold is assigned to each plant type to represent the limit at which it will start to incur frost injury. In this study, we focus on making the fixed temperature threshold of FATES variable in time and space—depending on the local conditions of temperature and light. Our results show that the new frost mortality scheme can simulate autumn and spring frost mortality, also for cold‐adapted species, and increases mid‐winter frost mortality due to variable winter weather—especially at warmer sites. This is in contrast to the original frost mortality scheme, which was only applicable to predict the distribution of plant types across climate zones. The implementation presented here opens up new ways to explore the spatial evolution of frost occurrences and intensities under changing climatic conditions. Key Points: We compare the original freezing mortality implementation in FATES (based on hard‐coded temperature thresholds) to a more dynamic approach (based on hardening)In contrast to the original approach, a new frost scheme is able to predict the damaging effects of extreme winter events and late spring frost eventsWe show that autumn and spring frost mortality is large, especially at colder sites, and that mid‐winter frost mortality increases with global warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]