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ARIMA MODELS OF SEASONAL VARIATION IN U. S. BIRTH AND DEATH RATES.
- Source :
- Demography (Springer Nature); Nov1983, Vol. 20 Issue 4, p541-568, 18p
- Publication Year :
- 1983
-
Abstract
- This paper applies methods of seasonal ARIMA time series analysis to U. S. monthly birth and death rates for January 1 950-December 1978. For model selection, the conventional Box-Jenkins (1970, 1976) diagnostic checks are used in conjunction with some suggestions of Nerlove et al. (1979). This results in final models that contain significant second-order autoregressive components, as well as seasonal moving-average components, for both series. In addition, some evidence is found in the birth rate series for weekly periodicities. These findings imply the existence of a seasonal adjustment procedure that improves on the Census X- 11 program currently used by vital statistics agencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- LABOR (Obstetrics)
POPULATION statistics
SOCIAL indicators
DEATH rate
STATISTICS
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00703370
- Volume :
- 20
- Issue :
- 4
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Demography (Springer Nature)
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 16799475
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.2307/2061119