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A Novel Approach to Predicting Urban Expansion by the Urban Scaling Law at a Single-City Scale.
- Source :
- Remote Sensing; Sep2023, Vol. 15 Issue 17, p4326, 14p
- Publication Year :
- 2023
-
Abstract
- Rapid urban expansion caused by vigorous urban population growth brought up various socioeconomic and eco-environmental problems, which have important ramifications for sustainable development across the world. Along with the accelerated urbanization process, accurate and realistic prediction of urban expansion is of great importance to optimize urban planning and urban development. This study proposed a new hybrid model, which combined the urban scaling law (USL) with the ANN-CA model to predict urban expansion. To employ urban scaling law in the model, we innovatively calculated the law exponent at a single-city scale. Based on USL, we estimated urban land demand in the future by panel data regression. Finally, we added the area constraint and ecological constraint into the ANN-CA model to simulate urban expansion spatially. This frame of urban expansion has been successfully applied in Shenzhen, of which the urban land area would increase from 816.45 km<superscript>2</superscript> in 2020 to 842.48 km<superscript>2</superscript> in 2025. By comparing this model with the traditional prediction method, we proved its effectiveness and accuracy. Besides, we found that the scaling exponent can reflect urbanization level and distinguish overconstructed cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- CITY dwellers
CITIES & towns
URBAN planning
PANEL analysis
MODELS & modelmaking
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 20724292
- Volume :
- 15
- Issue :
- 17
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Remote Sensing
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 171859242
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15174326