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Natural climate solutions provide robust carbon mitigation capacity under future climate change scenarios.

Authors :
Marvin, David C.
Sleeter, Benjamin M.
Cameron, D. Richard
Nelson, Erik
Plantinga, Andrew J.
Source :
Scientific Reports; 11/3/2023, Vol. 13 Issue 1, p1-12, 12p
Publication Year :
2023

Abstract

Natural climate solutions (NCS) are recognized as an important tool for governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and remove atmospheric carbon dioxide. Using California as a globally relevant reference, we evaluate the magnitude of biological climate mitigation potential from NCS starting in 2020 under four climate change scenarios. By mid-century NCS implementation leads to a large increase in net carbon stored, flipping the state from a net source to a net sink in two scenarios. Forest and conservation land management strategies make up 85% of all NCS emissions reductions by 2050, with agricultural strategies accounting for the remaining 15%. The most severe climate change impacts on ecosystem carbon materialize in the latter half of the century with three scenarios resulting in California ecosystems becoming a net source of carbon emissions under a baseline trajectory. However, NCS provide a strong attenuating effect, reducing land carbon emissions 41–54% by 2100 with total costs of deployment of 752–777 million USD annually through 2050. Rapid implementation of a portfolio of NCS interventions provides long-term investment in protecting ecosystem carbon in the face of climate change driven disturbances. This open-source, spatially-explicit framework can help evaluate risks to NCS carbon storage stability, implementation costs, and overall mitigation potential for NCS at jurisdictional scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
20452322
Volume :
13
Issue :
1
Database :
Complementary Index
Journal :
Scientific Reports
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
173431392
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-43118-6