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Uncertainty in the evolution of northwestern North Atlantic circulation leads to diverging biogeochemical projections.
- Source :
- Biogeosciences; 2024, Vol. 21 Issue 1, p301-314, 14p
- Publication Year :
- 2024
-
Abstract
- The global ocean's coastal areas are rapidly experiencing the effects of climate change. These regions are highly dynamic, with relatively small-scale circulation features like shelf break currents playing an important role. Projections can produce widely diverging estimates of future regional circulation structures. Here, we use the northwestern North Atlantic, a hotspot of ocean warming, as a case study to illustrate how the uncertainty in future estimates of regional circulation manifests itself and affects projections of shelf-wide biogeochemistry. Two diverging climate model projections are considered and downscaled using a high-resolution regional model with intermediate biogeochemical complexity. The two resulting future scenarios exhibit qualitatively different circulation structures by 2075 where along-shelf volume transport is reduced by 70 % in one of them and while remaining largely unchanged in the other. The reduction in along-shelf transport creates localized areas with either amplified warming (+3 ∘ C) and salinification (+0.25 units) or increased acidification (-0.25 units) in shelf bottom waters. Our results suggest that a wide range of outcomes is possible for continental margins and suggest a need for accurate projections of small-scale circulation features like shelf break currents in order to improve the reliability of biogeochemical projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- CONTINENTAL margins
ATMOSPHERIC models
CLIMATE change
OCEAN
ACIDIFICATION
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 17264170
- Volume :
- 21
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Biogeosciences
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 175004694
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-301-2024