A Pre‐Monsoon Signal of False Alarms of Indian Monsoon Droughts.

Current knowledge suggests a drought Indian monsoon (perhaps a severe one) when the El Nino Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation each exhibit positive phases (a joint positive phase). For the monsoons, which are exceptions in this regard, we found northeast India often gets excess pre‐monsoon rainfall. Further investigation reveals that this excess pre‐monsoon rainfall is produced by the interaction of the large‐scale circulation associated with the joint phase with the mountains in northeast India. We posit that a warmer troposphere, a consequence of excess rainfall over northeast India, drives a stronger monsoon circulation and enhances monsoon rainfall over central India. Hence, we argue that pre‐monsoon rainfall over northeast India can be used for seasonal monsoon rainfall prediction over central India. Most importantly, its predictive value is at its peak when the Pacific Ocean exhibits a joint positive phase and the threat of extreme drought monsoon looms over India. Plain Language Summary: Monsoon brings rain over India. But some years are droughts. These drought monsoon years are historically associated with warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific and cooler SST in the northern Pacific. This motivated scientists to predict drought monsoons when we observe a warm eastern and cold northern Pacific Ocean. However, in some years, the monsoon is not drought despite the SST anomalies in the Pacific suggesting so. We find that, in such years, rainfall over northeastern India during pre‐monsoon months is often excessive. So we argue that when the Pacific Ocean state suggests a drought monsoon over India (central region) but if pre‐monsoon rainfall over northeastern India is excessive, then we can rely less on the drought signal of the Pacific Ocean. Key Points: Pre‐monsoon rainfall over northeastern India is a potential indicator of false alarms of monsoon drought over central Indian regionAssociation between northeastern India pre‐monsoon rainfall and monsoon rainfall over central India oscillates multidecadallySea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific are a key driver of pre‐monsoon rainfall over the northeastern India [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]