Getting to World Class: Can China's Military Persevere?

Can the People's Liberation Army (PLA) achieve its ambitious modernization goals in an era of economic stagnation? Fewer national resources for procurement combined with technological restrictions imposed by the United States and temptations to use force in regional disputes could all hinder modernization timelines that extend through 2049. Nevertheless, gloomy assessments are premature. This essay argues that the PLA will probably stay on track. China's overall defense burden is far smaller than that of the Soviets during the Cold War or that of the U.S. today, meaning that funding will continue to flow. The impact of U.S. restrictions on the PLA will be diminished by domestic innovation and inconsistent participation by U.S. partners. Additionally, China's leaders have generally followed a military strategy that encourages a focus on long-term modernization priorities and avoidance of strategic distractions. Consequently, Beijing will probably not see the PLA as a diminishing asset that must be used during this decade, and competitive strategies to weaken China's military might from the outside are likely unrealistic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]