Prediction of Tsunami Alert Levels Using Deep Learning.

Tsunami simulations require powerful computational resources to be performed efficiently. Although the modern graphics processing units (GPUs) allow the acceleration of this kind of simulations, they can still last many minutes or even hours for simulations which have to deal with very high spatial resolutions or simulation times. In this paper, we propose a method to predict the alert or inundation level of a tsunami generated by an earthquake using deep learning methods. In particular, we train multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks for predicting the alert level due to a tsunami at given coastal locations. Ensemble methods are used to improve the predictions of the neural networks. Tsunamis caused by ruptures of several fault segments at different time instants, application to real events, probabilistic forecasting and comparison with other machine learning algorithms are also addressed. Results on realistic scenarios confirm that good accuracies are obtained. The inference times of the trained networks and ensembles are also very low, lasting less than one second to predict the results of thousands of simulations. The proposed method could be used in a tsunami early warning system along with the application of scaling laws. Plain Language Summary: In tsunami early warning systems (TEWS) it is crucial to perform fast predictions of the risk of a tsunami in coastal areas in order to take appropriate measures before the arrival of the tsunami. Currently, tsunami simulations may take many minutes or even hours despite using modern computational resources. In this work we propose a method based on deep learning techniques to predict the alert level of a tsunami generated by an earthquake at given coastal locations in a fraction of a second. This method could be used in TEWS along with techniques to estimate the values of some parameters of the earthquake. Application to real events and probabilistic predictions are also addressed. Key Points: A deep learning method to predict different tsunami alert levels is proposedTsunamis caused by the rupture of multiple fault segments at different time instants are supportedApplication to real events with probabilistic predictions are addressed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]