Climate Change Impact Assessment on Net Revenue of Rice Crop in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: A Cross-Sectional Ricardian Rent Analysis.

In current study impact of climate change on net revenue of rice crop in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Pakistan was assessed by cross-sectional Ricardian method. Data was collected from 180 rice growers in different climatic zone of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa including southern, central and northern regions. Key cost components were identified by simple budgeting technique. It reveals that land rent account for 29.11% of total cost, followed by labor (26.47%), threshing (8.53%) and tractor hours (8.31%). Per acre net returns noted vary across climatic zones, with northern zone yielding the highest at Rs. 30190.76/-followed by southern (Rs. 29957.12/-) and central zone (Rs. 27340.72/-). Temporal analysis having range from 1986-2021 reveals an upward trend for temperature in all three stages across the three zones. While rainfall patterns exhibit hill shaped curve during sowing and vegetative stages and a U-shaped curve during harvesting stage. Controlled variables including tractor hours, labor days, urea, DAP, and irrigation show positive and significant correlations with net revenue. A 1% increase in these variables results net revenue increase by 0.172 %, 0.175%, 0.019%, 0.061% and 0.113%, respectively. Study revealed non-linear relationship between temperature, rainfall and net revenue. Temperature's impact on net revenue follow inverted-U shaped with a critical temperature of 31 C°, beyond which rice crop yield decrease. Rainfall's effect for net return is U-shaped with a minimum rainfall level of 41 mm for study period. It is concluded that temperature increase in southern and central zone adversely affect crop yield because average temperature (34.88 °C, 34.77 °C) already exceeds the optimal level. Based on findings study recommended mechanized farming practices, such as use of rice combine harvester, mechanical drier and automatic planters to reduce production costs. Further, optimizing the use of basic inputs and implementing nature-based measures such as developing vegetative cover to control temperature could enhance net returns. Effective information sharing among stakeholders and timely action are essential to mitigate climate change risk in study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]