Analysis of Carbon Neutrality in Major Latin American Countries and the Inspiration for China.

Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Chile are four large developing countries in Latin American that are going on their development stage comparable to China. Getting insight into the carbon emissions and the effectiveness of the carbon neutrality policies in these countries are expected to be beneficial for China s carbon neutrality aspirations. With the data of the national "fossil fuel carbon emissions and terrestrial carbon balance of the four countries from 1990 to 2016, this paper examined the individuality and commonality in the carbon emission and carbon sequestration features and the driving forces. Thereafter, based on a systematic and comprehensive review of policy planning related to long-term emission reduction goals in the four Latin American countries, the scenario analysis method was used to evaluate the carbon emission reduction effectiveness and carbon neutrality of each country from 2017 to 2050. It is found as follows. ➀ The economic growth and demographic expansion were the two most important factors that pushed the fossil fuel carbon emissions in all the four countries. The improvement in energy utilization intensity in Mexico, Argentina and Chile had the effect of mitigating carbon emissions. Deforestation deviated Brazil and Argentina from their carbon neutrality goals while Mexico and Chile s terrestrial ecosystems had sequestered amount of carbon from the atmosphere to offset their fossil fuel emissions, by which Chile is nearing its carbon neutrality. ➁ The scenario analysis suggested that the current policies might facilitate Brazil to commit its 2025 and 2030 goals and close to its 2050 carbon neutrality goal. The current policies may also support Argentina commit its 2030 goal and Chile commit its 2050 carbon neutrality goal. However, there are challenges to Argentina's 2050 goal and Mexico's all intermediate goals. In light of these results, China's carbon neutrality strategies should prioritize three aspects: optimizing the energy structure, promoting energy efficiency, and enhancing terrestrial carbon sink sequestration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]