The Significance of Interseismic Vertical Land Movement at Convergent Plate Boundaries in Probabilistic Sea‐Level Projections for AR6 Scenarios: The New Zealand Case.

Anticipating and managing the impacts of sea‐level rise for nations astride active tectonic margins requires understanding of rates of sea surface elevation change in relation to coastal land elevation. Vertical land motion (VLM) can either exacerbate or reduce sea‐level changes with impacts varying significantly along a coastline. Determining rate, pattern, and variability of VLM near coasts leads to a direct improvement of location‐specific relative sea level (RSL) estimates for coastal hazard risk assessment. Here, we utilize vertical velocity field from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data, calibrated with campaign and continuous Global Navigation Satellite System data, to determine the VLM for the entire coastline of New Zealand. Guided by available knowledge of the seismic cycle, the VLM data infer secular, interseismic rates of land surface deformation. Using the Framework for Assessing Changes to Sea‐level (FACTS), we build probabilistic RSL projections using the same emissions scenarios employed in IPCC Assessment Report 6 and local VLM data at 8,179 sites, thereby enhancing spatial coverage that was previously limited to four tide gauges. We present ensembles of probability distributions of RSL for each scenario to 2150, and for low confidence sea‐level processes to 2300. Where land subsidence is occurring at rates >2 mm/y VLM makes a significant contribution to RSL projections for all scenarios out to 2150. Our approach can be applied to similar locations across the world and has significant implications for adaptation planning, as timing of threshold exceedance for coastal inundation can be brought forward (or delayed) by decades. Plain Language Summary: This study outlines an approach for deriving probabilistic projections of relative sea‐level change that account for changes in land surface elevation continuously along a coastline. Previous sea‐level projections that included vertical land movements (VLMs) were restricted to tide gauge locations. To provide spatial‐resolution required by practitioners for effective adaptation planning, we have combined elevations measured using satellite radar data with measurements from land‐based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers to build a continuous VLM database showing land uplift and subsidence (sinking) for the entire coastline of New Zealand. We integrate these data into probabilistic sea‐level projection methodology used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 6 (AR6) for the range of future climate scenarios. Our approach could be applied to any region of the world where the coastline is affected by VLM due to secular tectonic deformation. Downward land movement >2 mm/y makes a significant contribution in sea‐level projections for all climate scenarios out to the end of this century. This means that adaptation planning decision thresholds, such as those linked to the impacts of coastal flooding and inundation, may be brought forward by decades. Key Points: Anticipating impacts of sea‐level rise for active tectonic margins requires location‐specific knowledge of vertical land movement (VLM)VLM from geodetic measurements integrated with IPCC AR6 projections to provide probabilistic RSL estimates for dynamic coastlinesDownward VLM > 2 mm/y makes a significant contribution to RSL projections bringing forward adaptation decision thresholds by decades [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]