US-China Economic Rivalry: Prospects for Peace in the Middle East.

An economic interpretation of history suggests that war is a continuation of economic rivalry in pursuit of the object of desire in economics--economic rent. For the Middle East, the Industrial Revolution precipitated competition for control of its vast reserves of oil, a critical complementary asset for the machine age. The economic rents accruing to oil subjected the region to the "natural resource curse" of under-development and conflict between hegemonic powers. The escalation of US-China competition to dominate the key technologies of the modern digital economy into a full-blown economic and technological war squeezed China in the markets of the United States and its allies, pushing China to alternatives, including the Middle East, where it now has a pervasive economic presence through the Belt and Road Initiative, which has provided it a platform for diplomatic engagement. Any illusions of China rapidly converting its growing economic presence into leverage for peace in the region, which its brokerage of the Iran-Saudi Arabia restoration of diplomatic relations might have inspired, have been rudely shattered by the outbreak of war between Gaza and Israel. The key takeaway, however, is that, in the Middle East, the technological conditions that drive economic rivalry between China and the United States do not drive conflict between the two in the Middle East and that can only be good for the region. The first Industrial Revolution brought conflict to the region; the subsequent industrial revolutions are moving the nexus for conflict elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]