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A glimpse into the future: revealing the key factors for survival in cognitively impaired patients.
- Source :
- Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience; 2024, p1-10, 10p
- Publication Year :
- 2024
-
Abstract
- Background: Drawing on prospective data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), our goal was to construct and validate a 5-year survival prediction model for individuals with cognitive impairment (CI). Methods: This study entailed a prospective cohort design utilizing information from the 2011-2014 NHANES dataset, encompassing individuals aged 40 years or older, with updated mortality status as of December 31, 2019. Predictive models within the derivation and validation cohorts were assessed using logistic proportional risk regression, column-line plots, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) binomial regression models. Results: The study enrolled a total of 1,439 participants (677 men, mean age 69.75 ± 6.71 years), with the derivation and validation cohorts consisting of 1,007 (538 men) and 432 (239 men) individuals, respectively. The 5-year mortality rate stood at 16.12% (n = 232). We devised a 5-item column-line graphical model incorporating age, race, stroke, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN). The model exhibited an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.772 with satisfactory calibration. Internal validation demonstrated that the column-line graph model displayed strong discrimination, yielding an AUC of 0.733, and exhibited good calibration. Conclusion: To sum up, our study successfully developed and internally validated a 5-item nomogram integrating age, race, stroke, cardiovascular disease, and blood urea nitrogen. This nomogram exhibited robust predictive performance for 5-year mortality in individuals with CI, offering a valuable tool for prognostic evaluation and personalized care planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- MORTALITY risk factors
RISK assessment
PREDICTION models
RESEARCH funding
CARDIOVASCULAR diseases
INCOME
T-test (Statistics)
RECEIVER operating characteristic curves
INTERVIEWING
LOGISTIC regression analysis
QUESTIONNAIRES
FISHER exact test
PROBABILITY theory
AGE distribution
BLOOD urea nitrogen
DESCRIPTIVE statistics
CHI-squared test
MULTIVARIATE analysis
CAUSES of death
LONGITUDINAL method
RACE
COGNITION disorders
CONCEPTUAL structures
RESEARCH methodology
MATHEMATICAL models
NEUROPSYCHOLOGICAL tests
MARITAL status
STATISTICS
STROKE
THEORY
MEDICAL screening
DATA analysis software
EDUCATIONAL attainment
SENSITIVITY & specificity (Statistics)
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 16634365
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 178499579
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.3389/fnagi.2024.1376693