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A glimpse into the future: revealing the key factors for survival in cognitively impaired patients.

Authors :
Libing Wei
Dikang Pan
Sensen Wu
Hui Wang
Jingyu Wang
Lianrui Guo
Yongquan Gu
Source :
Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience; 2024, p1-10, 10p
Publication Year :
2024

Abstract

Background: Drawing on prospective data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), our goal was to construct and validate a 5-year survival prediction model for individuals with cognitive impairment (CI). Methods: This study entailed a prospective cohort design utilizing information from the 2011-2014 NHANES dataset, encompassing individuals aged 40 years or older, with updated mortality status as of December 31, 2019. Predictive models within the derivation and validation cohorts were assessed using logistic proportional risk regression, column-line plots, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) binomial regression models. Results: The study enrolled a total of 1,439 participants (677 men, mean age 69.75 ± 6.71 years), with the derivation and validation cohorts consisting of 1,007 (538 men) and 432 (239 men) individuals, respectively. The 5-year mortality rate stood at 16.12% (n = 232). We devised a 5-item column-line graphical model incorporating age, race, stroke, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN). The model exhibited an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.772 with satisfactory calibration. Internal validation demonstrated that the column-line graph model displayed strong discrimination, yielding an AUC of 0.733, and exhibited good calibration. Conclusion: To sum up, our study successfully developed and internally validated a 5-item nomogram integrating age, race, stroke, cardiovascular disease, and blood urea nitrogen. This nomogram exhibited robust predictive performance for 5-year mortality in individuals with CI, offering a valuable tool for prognostic evaluation and personalized care planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
16634365
Database :
Complementary Index
Journal :
Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
178499579
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3389/fnagi.2024.1376693