Tree Cover Perforation and Malaria: Evidence from Colombia.

A growing literature seeks to econometrically identify the link between tree cover change and malaria, two of the most pressing problems facing the Global South. However, we know little about the effect of tree cover fragmentation on malaria transmission, even though correlational evidence suggests that this effect may be important. We use municipality-level panel data from Colombia along with two-way fixed effects models to identify the effect on malaria incidence of changes in two measures of tree cover fragmentation—perforation and edge—as well as of a conventional measure of aggregate tree cover loss. We find that perforation in core areas of tree cover spurs malaria transmission. Evidence for the effects of changes in edge and aggregate loss is weaker. On average, a one-percentage-point increase in contemporaneous perforation leads to a 12.7% increase in malaria cases. This effect is stronger in municipalities with gold production and in those with coca production. These findings provide further evidence that forest conservation has significant benefits for local communities. They can also help stakeholders improve the efficacy of policies to stem malaria transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]